FOUR games, with an average winning margin of 12 points.
Two games at tomorrow’s venue with a margin less than one goal.
It is little wonder this season’s Golden Rivers Football League grand final between two-time reigning premiers, Ultima and minor premiers, Murrabit could produce the closest result since the Blues’ last grand final appearance in 2011.
In a season that has seen six teams battle for the finals and four capable of winning the flag, it is Murrabit and Ultima who have been the most consistent.
Both teams recorded a 12-4 record at the home and away season, with the Blues edging out the ‘Roos at the top of the ladder thanks to percentage.
However, three of Murrabit’s losses in the home and away season came against Ultima, with the team currently on a five-match losing streak against the competition’s most consistent side since 2014.
Ultima defeated Murrabit by 20 points at home when the teams met in round three, before two epic encounters at the Murrabit Recreation Reserve – the venue for tomorrow’s grand final.
Callan Farrell’s goal after the siren gave the ‘Roos a five-point win when the teams met in round 10, with Dwayne Hamlyn producing some last quarter heroics in round 16 to get Ultima over the line by one point.
Ultima’s fourth win of the season against Murrabit came in the second semi-final two weeks ago, with the ‘Roos winning at Macorna by 20 points, whilst the Blues booked their first grand final berth since 2011 last weekend with a 14-point win against Nullawil.
Depending on the conditions and how each side handles the oppositions’ midfield, tomorrow’s game could become a shootout.
Both teams have adapted to not relying on their spearhead forwards, instead using three to four players to kick goals.
Blues’ coach, Nathan Henry will receive the greatest attention – with veteran defender, Nathan Condely to resume hostilities with the Murrabit spearhead – whilst Leigh McCombe and Nathan Brown will have to contend with Luke Kelson and Stuart Polkinghorne.
Down the other end of the ground, Ultima’s leading goalkicker, Basil Althouse, will face another battle with Dylan Morison, with teammate, Kyle Symons to face Blues recruit, Luke Nyko.
Murrabit should win the ruck duel, with Andrew Spitty to be too strong for Stewart Broussard, but the battle to control the midfield will be difficult to predict.
This year’s E.G. Hunt Medallist, Bryden Morison will face a tag from either Jacob Schaper or previous medal winner, Tom Isma, with Simon Morton’s finals experience to be pivotal in the midfield for the Blues.
With the sides so close on paper, two major factors will determine the outcome of this year’s grand final – experience and the week’s rest.
Sixteen of the 21 players who took to the field for Ultima two weeks have played in at least one of the club’s past two premierships, whilst the last four premiers have been the side that has won the second semi-final that season.
PREDICTION: Ultima will win a third successive premiership by 10 points.
